↗CO-PRESIDENT & CO-FOUNDER
Aarush Mehta
Business AdministrationUNC Kenan-Flagler Business School
BSBAData ScienceUNC–Chapel Hill
BAInterested inFintech
New signals. Better questions.
Opportunity lives
in uncertainty.
Prediction markets. Institutional decisions.
Exploring their role in forecasting,
risk, and investment research.
THE SHAPE OF A FORECAST
Illustrative scenarios · Drag to explore
FORECASTING / RISK / INVESTMENT RESEARCHSCROLL TO EXPLORE ↓
01 OUR PERSPECTIVE
What does the market
know? What does it miss?
CPI brings Carolina students together to explore how institutions could use prediction markets to forecast outcomes, monitor risk, and test investment assumptions.
Our questions are practical: Which decisions could a market inform? Who should participate? When does its price contain useful information?
We want to examine those questions through research, planned paper trading, and conversations with industry practitioners. Alternative assets remain part of that discussion.
THREE WAYS INTO THE CONVERSATIONCHOOSE A LENS ↙
A QUESTION WORTH ASKINGWhat would change
What would change
your mind?
A market can bring together views held across an organization. We’re interested in when that signal could improve a forecast or prompt a closer look at risk.
- Look at
- Institutional forecasting and market design
- Ask
- Does the market add information to the existing forecast?
- Discuss
- Participation, incentives, and how outcomes are resolved
A QUESTION WORTH ASKINGWhat makes something
What makes something
worth owning?
Some assets don’t come with a familiar valuation model. Start with what gives them value, who wants to own them, and how they change hands.
- Look at
- Collectibles, commodities, and digital assets
- Ask
- What supports demand over time?
- Discuss
- Scarcity, ownership, and liquidity
A QUESTION WORTH ASKINGCan your idea survive
Can your idea survive
a second look?
A thesis gets more useful when someone challenges it. Find the source, separate facts from assumptions, and make the case clearly enough to debate.
- Look at
- Original sources and competing explanations
- Ask
- Which assumption matters most?
- Discuss
- What would make you revisit the thesis?
EXPLORE INSTITUTIONAL APPLICATIONS
Where prediction markets
meet institutional decisions.
How might an organization use a market to surface information? Explore three hypothetical applications—and the questions that determine whether the signal is useful.
HYPOTHETICAL APPLICATION
A launch date worth planning around.
- 01
Question
Will the product meet its defined launch criteria by June 30?
- 02
Market signal
Participants with different information express their views in a shared forecast that can change as milestones are met.
- 03
Institutional decision
A planning team compares that forecast with its schedule before reviewing staffing and launch commitments.
WHAT TO EXAMINE
Resolution criteria: define what counts as a launch, the deadline, and the evidence used to settle the question.
Illustrative scenarios for exploration. A market signal is one input to judgment; liquidity, participant incentives, and clear resolution criteria all matter.
Research context ↗02 THE MEMBER EXPERIENCE
From an idea
to a point of view.
Here’s what we’re building at CPI.
Follow our progress ↗01Paper tradingPLANNED＋
We plan to run a paper portfolio where members can put a thesis to the test, record why they took a position, and revisit the result.
Research→Take a position→Review
Simulated positions. A record of the reasoning behind them.
02Industry speakers＋
Conversations with people working across investing, markets, and data. We want to hear about the decisions behind their careers and leave time for members’ questions.
03Professional development＋
Practice researching an investment, explaining your assumptions, and presenting a case. The work you do in a meeting should help you in an interview, an internship, and beyond.
04Networking＋
Meet students who share your interest in markets and connect with professionals through club programming. Build relationships over a discussion, a project, or a question you’re working through.
03 THE PEOPLE BEHIND CPI
Carolina minds.
A shared ambition.
Meet the founding team.
↗
↗CO-PRESIDENT & CO-FOUNDER
Preston Harbin
Business AdministrationUNC Kenan-Flagler Business School
BSBAData ScienceUNC–Chapel Hill
BAInterested inFinance
↗VP OF OPERATIONS & CO-FOUNDER
Ethan Horne
Business AdministrationUNC Kenan-Flagler Business School
BSBAInterested inFinance
THE TEAM IS GROWING
Our executive board will extend beyond the founders, including a Director of Marketing and additional leadership positions.
Watch for opportunities ↗04 YOUR NEXT CONVERSATION
Bring a question.
Pull up a chair.
↗For meetings, speaker announcements, and ways
to get involved, follow CPI on LinkedIn.